February 11, 2016  by

The Predictions Are In

 

Salt Lake Board of Realtors Economic Housing Forecast

Capture 2016Everything is peachy keen as far as the speakers see it, but are they really?

Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow James Wood presented the following picture for Utah

  • 2015 was the 3rd highest year for single family sales up 22%
  • Median sales price up to $272,000
  • Days on the market lowest level since 2006 -21 days for homes
  • Strong Market pushing prices higher but they are still 5% lower than 10 years ago
  • Interest rates 4 to 4.5 maybe 4.75 by end of year
  • Less than 2 1/2% of loans under water currently

Natalie Gochnour, associate dean and director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah

  • Utah finished with #1 in fastest growing state
  • Utah is know to be the Wall Street of the West
  • Interest rates will have maybe 2 or 3 increases over the next year
  • Definitely no bubble
  • Very encouraging forecast
  • $30 million being dumped into the Utah economy over the next 3 months from airport renovation

Capture worldReality is that things are great for Utah and for the United States; however, what is going on in the world has a direct impact on us

Although Ms. Gochnour touched on some of the world economic crisis currently happening, neither speakers seemed to think that anything globally was going to have much of an impact on Utah in the near future.  My opinion is that it would be impossible for anything on the list below to not have a huge impact on 2016 .

  • Stock markets are extremely volatile
  • Investors in equities including private pensions are taking a huge loss
  • Talk of negative interest rates (Sweden already there)
  • Oil prices have crashed to below $27 a barrel
  • Financial troubles are still persistent in Europe
  • China’s bubble might be about ready to burst
  • Any major change with the Zika virus that effects travel

All I can say is keep your options open as the world is in a state of financial flux.  

What this means to people looking towards real estate is that when you are going to make a decision…

  •  Think about the goals you are trying to obtain
  •  Be smart about what you do
  • Think about the what if scenarios
  •  If you are selling and the market turns towards a buyers market are you prepared to reduced your price quickly
  •  Do you have the funds to sustain you should the unexpected happen
  • Can you handle this financial decision for the long term if need be
  •  Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

for more information on SLBR Forecast click link for live webcast http://slrealtors.com/portfolio/2016housingforecast/

 

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